Tuesday, January 19, 2010

Interviews with Jairam Ramesh, post-Copenhagen

'Kyoto is in intensive care'
Q&A: Jairam Ramesh, Minister of State, Environment and Forests
Business Standard / New Delhi January 15, 2010, 0:55 IST


Jairam Ramesh is perhaps the most intelligent and energetic environment minister India has had. He has brought a new sense of purpose to his ministry, outlined an ambitious domestic agenda, introduced greater transparency, and dramatically altered India’s negotiating stance in the global talks on climate change. Here, for the first time, Ramesh speaks to Business Standard on what he has done so far and his future agenda. In the first of a three-part interview Ramesh speaks about the meaning of the Copenhagen Accord. Subsequent instalments will deal with the domestic policy agenda.


 

In Copenhagen, did you let the rich countries off the hook? What did you gain by allowing Annex I countries to dilute the Kyoto protocol?
They have not diluted Kyoto. The two largest emitters are not part of Kyoto. Let’s understand that 45 per cent of the world’s emissions are accounted for by two countries (China and the US), who are not part of Kyoto.
One outcome of Copenhagen was that negotiations under Kyoto will continue for the second commitment period. But the fact is, Kyoto is in intensive care. Most countries want to get out of Kyoto. The desire of the international community is to bring China into an international agreement on controlling greenhouse gas emissions. What the Europeans are saying is, we will not take commitments under Kyoto because the Americans are not doing it; and the Americans are saying we will not take commitments because the Chinese are doing it. To that extent, we are in a bit of a quandary. We have not killed Kyoto. We have bought time.
Let’s assume it is dead…
It’s facing a grave crisis. No question about it. The second commitment period is under question because of structural reasons, because of questions being raised on the US, and in the US questions being raised on China. What we got in Copenhagen was the mandate to continue the negotiations on that. Then we got the Copenhagen accord. Twenty-nine countries negotiated this accord.
What did India gain by aligning with China?
Our alignment was strategic. It goes beyond climate change. Within the climate change issue, it was India that helped bring transparency on to the agenda; and by bringing transparency on to the agenda, actually the pressure is on China to do a much better job on what it is doing — making it transparent. Frankly, it (China’s) is a very opaque system. For example, day before yesterday, the chief negotiator was shifted.
The criticism is that, after Copenhagen, the 2 degree limit on global warming is impossible to achieve. It will go well beyond that limit. And since India is among the world’s most vulnerable countries when it comes to climate change, basically, you’ve killed yourself. 
It’s a no-win situation. There was pressure on us to agree to a 1.5 degree limit — Bangladesh, Maldives, Nepal, Bhutan — all wanted that. We cannot agree to that. That will further constrict our development space. Even the 2 degrees — today we are 380 parts per million, it goes to 450. How much is going to be attributable to growth from India? We don’t know. There is no international framework for sharing.
What you are saying is that the 2 degree cap will not work?
No, what we are saying is we’ve agreed to a 2 degree cap by 2050. That was not at Copenhagen.
By killing Kyoto, you knocked out the 2 degree limit. If you are going to be one of the early victims of global warming, it will be a disservice to India to have let Annex I countries off the hook.
The best service to India is to agree to a 1.5 degree limit. But India has multiple objectives. India has its objective of ensuring its vulnerability gets minimised. Its objective is to preserve its development space for 9 per cent growth. If I had gone with purely environmental objectives, I would have perhaps taken a different stance. I did not go with a pure environmental objective.
How will we keep development space if we come under international scrutiny?
This is a bogus argument. India has been under international scrutiny for the last 55 to 60 years. We are quite adept at handling ourselves internationally. We do Article IV consultations with the IMF. We do trade policy discussions with the WTO. In fact, our trade liberalisation autonomously has been far more aggressive than what we have committed to under WTO. The IMF comes and produces a fiscal and monetary policy assessment. Has our sovereignty been eroded? Just because we have consultation and analysis (that’s the word, not scrutiny)?
I have said from day one that we have nothing to hide. We are quite willing to have consultations, I’m quite willing to put up every year a climate policy statement of the Government of India. I’ll discuss it with whoever you want. How will sovereignty get eroded because of that?
What did we get in return for shifting our negotiating position?
First, we did not shift, we negotiated our position. On the global goal, we got what we wanted. We went to Copenhagen with the express objective of having a global goal in terms of an increase limited to 2 degrees Celsius. Nothing more.
We didn’t want a 50 per cent cut in global emissions. We didn’t want a PPM (parts per million) goal. We wanted a temperature goal. We got that. We didn’t want the Copenhagen accord to be a legally binding treaty. We got that.
It is an operational document, so it is binding, de facto.
It is not a legally binding document. The Americans themselves don’t want a legally binding document. It is an operational document.
You set out to change the agenda before you went to Copenhagen. The picture the government presented in the run-up to the meeting was of speaking in different languages, then the negotiators were on strike.
We are an argumentative society. We allow a multiplicity of opinions. We are a democracy at work. We have diversity at work. Ultimately, what is it that the PM wants.
Since you are leading the effort, did you not discuss and get a consensus before you took a formal position?
If Dr Manmohan Singh had gone for consensus in 1991, would we have got economic reforms?
So, you did not get a consensus?
But I did not do anything by stealth. I said whatever I had to say in Parliament. I said, when I was asked, ‘Have you shifted from the position,’ I said yes. I had said we would have our domestic obligations subject to international information. I said it had changed to international consultation and analysis. Yes, it’s changed. There is no big loss to national sovereignty.
You also took the position that we don’t need the money, whereas under Kyoto the money was supposed to come?
Who will give us public money? Nobody will. We are the world’s fourth largest economy, the second fastest growing economy, and the world will give us money? Let us be realistic.
There was supposed to be a transfer of technology, too.
Who is going to transfer technology? Why would they transfer technology? That was under UNFCCC (the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change) in 1992, when China was nowhere on the horizon as a greenhouse gas emitter, and India’s 8 per cent growth was a dream. Things have changed. We are not junking UNFCCC. In Copenhagen, after a long time, India was seen to be pro-solution in the debate.

'I wear two hats-to get coal for power and to save forests'
Q&A: Jairam Ramesh, Minister of State, Environment and Forests
Business Standard / New Delhi January 16, 2010, 0:54 IST

In this second part of the interview with Business Standard, Environment Minister Jairam Ramesh talks of his domestic agenda, and what he plans to do in terms of greening the power and transport sectors — from switching to new technologies in thermal power generation to outlining “go” and “no go” areas for coal mining, depending on the extent of forest cover in the coalfields; and from stipulating new emission standards for the auto industry to stressing technological change in the railways.
Can you elaborate on your domestic green agenda? What is it, how are you prioritising it, and is there a timeline?
The Planning Commission has announced the establishment of the expert group on a low-carbon economy. We have started serious thinking on how to achieve 20 to 25 per cent reduction in emission intensity by 2020, on the 2005 level. Our preliminary work has suggested it is eminently feasible. Now we have to get into the nitty gritty — power, transport, buildings and agriculture.
What are you doing in the power sector?
Between 50 and 60 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions are accounted for by the power sector. One big constraint we have is that coal will remain the mainstay of the power economy. Broadly, the objective is that we want to add 13,000 MW every year, and 6,000-7,000 MW will come from coal alone. That is assuming that our renewable energy programme picks up, the nuclear energy programme picks up, more gas will be used for power generation, and assuming that we are able to sort out many of the environmental problems associated with hydel. Under the best case scenario for non-coal, coal’s contribution will still be 6,000-7,000 MW.
So what does that mean?
There are two problems. One is, we will be using largely domestic coal, because we have the world’s third largest coal reserves and we are not going to be able to import much coal. Today 10 per cent of coal is imported. We don’t want to be in a situation where 50 per cent of our coal is imported. We are producing 500 million tonnes of coal, and will produce a billion tonne in 7 to 8 years’ time. All incremental coal will come from our coal reserves in Jharkhand, Orissa and Chhattisgarh, and the reserves are in medium and good canopy forest areas. So we have a problem there on coal.
Secondly, we have a problem on CO2 emissions. The single-most important technology transition that has to take place in the power sector is to move from sub-critical to super-critical and ultra super-critical generation. This means increasing the temperatures at which steam gets generated and used.
How much does that change things?
It reduces greenhouse gas emissions by 10 per cent. India’s first super-critical project will be commissioned by end of 2011. It is coming up at Mundra, a Tata Power project. Technology for the boilers is from Dusan in South Korea, and core technology for the turbines is from Toshiba. That will be the first. It is five units of 800MW each.
Does this raise the cost of electricity?
It is all competitively bid, tariff-based bidding. They have taken into account the associated costs of technology. And you use less coal. The capital cost is more, undoubtedly. But the world over, people are moving to this technology. We have started the transition.
What else are you doing to green the power sector?
A second transition will be in combined cycle coal gasification. India’s first integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) unit is a 122 MW coal-based plant coming up in Vjayawada, and will take about three years to commission. Bhel and APGenco have a joint venture for that. The United States is working on a 600 MW IGCC plant, and so is China. The two most important options in coal-based power generation are super-critical and ultra super-critical, and IGCC. If we are going to continue this extraordinarily high level of dependence on coal, we have to rethink our technology strategy as far as coal combustion is concerned.
What about the forestry angle to coal mining?
I have to admit, I wear two hats. One is to help in the build-up of power generating capacity, because I was in the power ministry also. Now I have to look at it from a different angle. I have to look at it from the forestry angle. I am faced with a serious situation in Chhattisgarh. Some of the best forest areas will be destroyed for the next 30 years. I hope they will be regenerated 30 years from now. But we have to take a 30–year hiatus between destruction and regeneration.
One of the things we are doing is taking major coalfields and dividing them into go–areas and no go-areas. We have mapped the North Karanpura coalfield, where we have identified 59 mines, of which 38 happen to be in the go areas. These are in forest areas where tree density is low and we can work there. The remaining 21 are in no go areas. We have suggested to the ministry of coal, rethink your production strategy and maximise production in the go areas and keep out the no go areas for the time being, till we work out some alternative.
Any other coalfields where this is being done?
We are doing this for seven big coalfields of India. North Karanpura was the first. We are doing it for Talcher, and Ib Valley. The fact is the more coal we produce, the more forests we are going to give up. That will have its own impact on global warming. But India has not been a contributor to deforestation. We are one of the few who have been re-foresting. We have added 3 million hectares in the last 10 years, and aim to double it in the next 10. Brazil in this period lost 2.5 million hectares per year. If we are not careful, we can enter the Brazil and Indonesia league.
What are the issues in transportation?
Transport accounts for between 5 and 8 per cent of our greenhouse gas emissions. But the rate at which it is going, by 2030 we are looking at 20 per cent of GHG emissions coming from transport alone. This is not surprising because it took India 62 years to reach one million cars production, and your second million will be reached in the next year. The Chinese are selling one million a month. You can see why Chinese are the high emitters, because of this large vehicular population.
The single-most important step to take is to move towards a regime of mandatory fuel efficiency standards. Whether you define this fuel efficiency in terms of CO2 emissions or in terms of kmpl (kilometres per litre), that’s a technical issue. The Europeans have always had kmpl standards, now they are imposing CO2 emission standards. We already have those standards. The job of the government is not to dictate technology but to determine standards. Once you have done that, technology choices will be made by producers.
Would you go as far as California, which has set zero emission standards?
That’s an extreme level. It’s an intervening phase that we have to get into. The industry is on board. The whole thing has got stuck for one year because of a bureaucratic turf battle between the ministry of surface transport and the ministry of power. The issue was who will formulate and legislate. Should it be legislated under the Motor Vehicles Act or under the Energy Conservation Act. We have spent one year on this issue. Even today we don’t have any clarity.
What are you going to mandate?
Fuel efficiency standards in terms of kmpl.
Have you indicated what the levels are?
Those standards have been worked out. What level of upgradation is required from existing levels, has been worked out with industry. Industry is comfortable with it. They are not saying this will impose an intolerable burden. These standards are there in other countries. It’s just a question of getting the administrative mechanics right. We’ve lost a year on this issue.
Are you going to use more gas for public transport?
There are many other systemic issues on public transportation. The whole rail-road mix is an important issue. The railway sector has to undergo a massive technological upgradation. That’s been talked of for the last couple of years. This is what the Chinese have been able to do. One big element of their stimulus in the last three years has been spending on the railways.
What about bio-fuels in transportation?
I am not entirely gung ho on bio-fuels because of the land issues involved. We are talking of electric vehicles. In general, in the transportation sector, mandatory standards are the critical starting point that will trigger a whole set of decisions on the part of producers and they will bring in new technology to meet these standards. The railways are going to be very significant, too.


'Negotiations have dictated our climate change moves'
Q&A: Jairam Ramesh, Minister for Environment and Forests
Business Standard / New Delhi January 18, 2010, 0:47 IST


In this concluding part of his extended interview to Business Standard, Environment Minister Jairam Ramesh talks of his agenda for greening Indian industry: new energy efficiency norms for industry, applying a new environment index at industrial clusters, and the like.
What is the scope of your green plan for industry?
The big thing we are awaiting is the national energy efficiency mission, which we have announced. The amendments to the Energy Conservation Act are now awaiting parliamentary approval. We are introducing a market-based mechanism for energy efficiency — a cap and trade system, so to speak. In nine energy-intensive industries, like cement, fertiliser and refineries, the best-practice energy consumption norms are stipulated. An energy-efficiency certificate is to be introduced, as a legal sort of tender, mandated under the Energy Conservation act. Say there’s a company meeting these standards by a substantial amount and there are companies well above the standards by a substantive amount. You create an internal market for trade in the certificate.
There is an auditing issue here, because there is no reliable way of auditing who meets the norms.
There are 714 energy-intensive units for which we will have the norms set. It’s a new era we are entering. To my mind, it is the only system which will work. We are not a country where you can close down units.
Internationally, the carbon trading thing is no longer seen as such a great idea.
This is not carbon trading. The metric is not carbon emissions. The metric is energy consumption. This is a big step forward that we’ve taken. The Bill has been introduced, the amendments are there. I expect by the end of the Budget session these amendments will be passed. By the middle of the year, the whole process of creating market-based mechanisms will fall into place.
Tell us about these industrial clusters that you have rated on environmental quality.
We got IIT Delhi and some other independent institutions to study where we are on environmental quality in 88 clusters. We looked at air pollution, water pollution and land pollution. Based on the results, we devised a Comprehensive Environmental Pollution Index, which we will update every year.
The second part is to devise intervention. There has been a failure on the part of State Pollution Control Boards to monitor environmental quality. The infrastructure has not kept pace with industrial expansion. I have been to Vapi and Ankleshwar, which are the most polluted clusters. A simple thing like the drainage system has not kept pace with the expansion. Units have proliferated, but the basic infrastructure provided for in the mid-60s and 70s has not expanded. What you see in Vapi is red-colour effluent getting into the soil or municipal drains. It is a complete failure of environmental management.
What corrective steps are you taking?
I’ve had a chat with the finance minister. I said the primary responsibility of environmental management in these clusters is of private industry. However, there are many cases in which you will need common service facilities. You will require infrastructure facilities. I suggested we create a financial corpus – Rs 500 crore to begin with. This money from the Centre will stimulate state governments to participate, industry to participate, banks and financial institutions to participate. It is the Centre that seems to be more concerned with the environment than states. States are more concerned with growth, investment and employment.
What about the plans to encourage green buildings?
Buildings will be a very important contributor to our emissions. If you see the modern service economy, it is turning out to be as energy-intensive as conventional manufacturing. That is because of the way buildings have been designed. In the United States, the building sector is responsible for 35 to 40 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions. We are not in that league as yet. As the service economy modernises, as urbanisation increases, as per capita income goes up, as prices of ACs fall, we will be in a situation where the building sector will play a very important role.
The most important thing is to have codes that are best practice in terms of energy consumption and emissions. We have introduced codes called the GRAHA. There is an international code called LEAD. India’s most efficient (from an emissions point of view) public building will be the new ministry of external affairs, which will be commissioned by June. Our ministry’s own office building, which will be commissioned by November 2011, will reduce energy consumption by 50 to 60 percent. There are similar buildings in Gurgaon – the Wipro office building, the ITC building, the Teri University. The bulk of the construction activity in states is in municipal building codes. If we are able to show what can be done at the Central level, the demonstration effect of these buildings will ensure that private buildings that get permission under various energy codes will also be energy compliant.
Don’t such buildings raise costs?
For our building, we are looking at Rs 100 crore. What it would have cost had we not taken in all these features, that exercise we have not done, though it would be an interesting exercise. What the corpus will do is to fund activities such as a common effluent treatment plant.
With all that you are planning, will you reach your emission reduction targets?
With our eyes closed, we will reach 20 per cent. Many of these actions are in various stages of implementation. I expect the low carbon economy group to come up with a few more suggestions. We have many studies to show we can do better.
You have said that India has no data on emissions intensity beyond 1994. If so, what is the basis for your targets?
We have internationally-used data. The only source of comparable data is either Energy Administration of the US or the International Energy Agency in Paris. They use our Economic Survey and sectoral surveys and calculate.
Why don’t we have our own data beyond 1994?
Our whole approach to climate change has been dictated by international negotiations. Our mindset is, does the UNFCCC demand it? By May of this year, we will have an emissions inventory for 2007. The ballpark numbers will not change. From then, we will keep updating once in two years.
The Chinese are now among the top solar companies. Can you explain this, and where do we stand?
Of the top 10 solar companies, four are already Chinese. China has strategically decided that they want to be world leaders in green technology by 2020. China has 12,000 Mw of wind-based energy, whereas India has 8,000 Mw. Five years ago, India was ahead of China. The Chinese are selling super-critical technology for coal-based power generation. The Chinese have grasped this as a strategic opportunity. Japan is also trying to recover the technological leadership that it lost in the 80s. They are also betting in a big way on green technology. It’s not the United States, but Japan and China that will be the drivers of technology on coal-based power, wind, solar energy.

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