It's time for Copenhagen: 350 on the Map (?!)

Some people might think this sounds horrible, but a little part of me felt that AOSIS was being somewhat unrealistic, or even extreme with their proposal for 350 ppm and a limit of 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial. (Though perhaps this view was also colored by the throng of demonstrators surrounding the spokespersons). These demands seemed to be reaching outside what a final agreement could most likely achieve. Why derail the negotiations, where the world can at least start to act, by putting forward demands unlikely to be met? (In this article that came after the Tuvalu proposal was aired, Yvo de Boer notes that developed countries seem to be set on 2 degrees, not 1.5 degrees.) With 450 ppm, we can definitely push for serious emissions reductions and greater funding for adaptation. But what will happen if AOSIS adopts this hard line and then negotiations founder? Do we really want to walk away with no agreement? That'll be worse for the planet.

As I mentioned earlier, the AOSIS representatives were adamant that the proposals be considered fundamental demands. But it remains unclear whether this action was meant to stake out an aggressive negotiating position to create space for a more favorable agreement, or if these are truly make-it-or-break-it conditions.

Perhaps they feel they have no other choice but to take a more extreme stand. I understand part of this is political posturing, to capture the spotlight and boost the visibility of island nations and their views. For small states that traditionally have a limited voice in international affairs, the COP may be one of the few instances in which their concerns can be heard and actually taken into account. (Since they are, admittedly, sitting on the front lines).

However, in the weeks leading up to Copenhagen, the process seemed to be moving along with developed countries (EU, Japan, US), and large developing countries (like China, India, Brazil) seen as the key players. Perhaps then, these actions could also be interpreted as an attempt by small islands to overcome a feeling of helplessness, as other nations rolled through with their own agendas. Yet one somehow gets the sense that if island nations did not truly feel their way of life was threatened, there would be less inclination to take such a stand. There are easier ways to be heard.

Whatever the case, it’s having an effect. By pushing the envelope, small island nations have changed the bounds of what everyone is discussing at the conference, and subsequent proposals have reflected this.

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Video of the AOSIS press conference

Dessima Williams (Grenada/AOSIS)